Ripples of resilience: navigating drought in Alberta through a simulation

In 2023, Alberta faced the threat of drought and water shortages following its driest fall on record. As drought conditions persist and intensify because of climate change, preparedness and adaptation become increasingly crucial for securing Alberta’s water future.

The Alberta Water Council (AWC) has taken proactive steps by bringing together a team of industry, government, First Nations and non-governmental organizations to address the province’s water management issues and prepare for future drought events. In 2020, the AWC released a reference guide to aid in developing drought management response plans. Seeking to refine their guide’s effectiveness, they organized a simulation exercise in the drought-prone South Saskatchewan River Basin.

WaterSmart facilitator Brie Nelson and David Westwood, General Manager of the St. Mary River Irrigation District, discussing the results of the South Saskatchewan River Operational Model

Thanks to funding from Alberta Innovates, the AWC collaborated with WaterSMART Solutions Ltd. to organize and facilitate a drought simulation. WaterSMART played a crucial role in planning, designing and executing the simulation in close partnership with the AWC. This simulation, spanning the Red Deer, Oldman and Bow sub-basins, used the South Saskatchewan River Operational Model, a computer model that offers region-specific data and predictions. The model enhances the accuracy and relevance of drought simulations for the watershed, helping water resource managers to navigate decisions under different drought scenarios.

“The idea was to stress the watershed with a make-believe drought based on real data in the span of two years,” says Katie Duffett, senior project manager at AWC.

Organizations that manage Alberta’s water were key participants in the exercise and included Alberta’s Ministry of Environment and Protected Areas. Faced with simulated water management scenarios, the participants made decisions to manage supply and demand. The Red Deer and Oldman sub-basins proved more challenging to manage than the Bow as the simulation stressed them to a higher degree, revealing the nuances of water management in different sub-basins.

Communication was a key focus of the simulation exercise, requiring collaboration both within and across watersheds.

“A big outcome is testing and improving lines of communication between sub-basins, because in the end, you get a large region under the impacts of drought, and it takes everyone to manage and respond to it,” says Andre Asselin, executive director of the AWC.

The simulation projected conditions from March to September, including snowpack, stream flows and seasonal changes in supply and demand.

“The simulation did a really good job of emulating the different types of information and the complexity of all of the factors that need to be considered when water managers are making decisions,” says Nicole Pysh, project team co-chair.

While Alberta exercises a “first-in-time, first-in-right” water allocation system where the oldest water license users have priority, actual decision-making was much more collaborative.

“What we found in our exercise is that wasn’t the case at all,” says Asselin. “People were willing to work together to try to make it so that all the needs and demands were able to be met as much as possible.”

The AWC is now integrating lessons learned into tools for future drought planning.

“These forward-thinking recommendations to enhance our resilience were recently released and were informed by the water managers who participated in the simulation exercise,” says Mariem Oloroso, lead project manager.

As Alberta is facing another dry year, the timing of this work is crucial. The report with recommendations was released at the end of February and is available on the AWC website.

“When you’re not in a drought,” says Asselin, “you’re not really thinking about it. By the time a drought hits, it’s too late to start planning.”

Learn more about the projects supported by Alberta Innovates’ Water Innovation Program.

This article is part of Making Waves, an annual Alberta Innovates publication highlighting water solutions we support. You can read more stories from this issue below.